CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z FRI 17/12 - 06Z SAT 18/12 2004
ISSUED: 17/12 00:45Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

General thunderstorms are forecast across North Sea and Baltic Sea region

General thunderstorms are forecast across central Mediterranean

SYNOPSIS

Large upper long-wave trough over NWrn Europe expands SE-ward. A very strong upper jet streak will travel into central Europe, and intense cyclogenesis is expected along a frontal boundary that should move southward over western Europe. South of this cold front ... airmass over western Europe and western Mediterranean shows poor instability ... with CAPE of some J/kg. On Saturday ... showers and thunderstorms will be not very likely along the cold front due to this lack of instability and weak QG forcing due to intensifying CAA. Over central Mediterranean ... weak upper trough will move eastward ... and showers/ thunderstorms should form. Weak vertical wind shear will be present ... and severe thunderstorms are not likely.

DISCUSSION

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